the many and the few

i promise this’ll be the last of these “similar teams” posts for a while; i’m just cleaning out the file. today we look at teams that, like the 2004 cardinals, led the league both in runs scored and fewest runs allowed. the cards were the 10th such team since 1970; how did the previous nine fare the year after? let’s start by naming the teams, with their records:

2001 mariners, 116-46
1998 yankees, 114-48
1995 indians, 100-44 (113-49 extrapolated to 162 games)
1988 mets, 100-60
1984 tigers, 104-58
1978 dodgers, 95-67
1974 dodgers, 102-60
1971 orioles, 101-57
1970 orioles, 109-53

an illustrious group — eight won 100+ games, seven won pennants, and three won world titles. as a group they averaged 105 wins . . . but in the year after achieving this rare feat they notched on average only 90.5 wins. five of the nine teams won fewer than 90, and only one topped 100. six of the nine teams missed out on the playoffs the following year. their records, with playoff teams in bold:

2002 mariners, 93-69
1999 yankees, 98-64
1996 indians, 99-62
1989 mets, 87-75
1985 tigers, 84-77
1979 dodgers, 79-83
1975 dodgers, 88-74
1972 orioles, 80-74 (84-78 extrapolated to 162 games)
1971 orioles, 101-57

2002 mariners - 6th runs, 5th runs allowed
1999 yankees - 3rd runs, 2nd runs allowed
1996 indians - 2nd runs, 1st runs allowed
1989 mets - 3rd runs, 2nd runs allowed
1985 tigers - 6th runs, 4th runs allowed
1979 dodgers - 2nd runs, 9th runs allowed
1975 dodgers - 8th runs, 1st runs allowed
1972 orioles - 8th runs, 1st runs allowed
1971 orioles - 1st runs, 1st runs allowed

note that the three playoff returnees continued to excel in both phases of the game, while the teams that slumped — with one exception — slumped more in the batter’s box than on the mound. indeed, two teams (75 dodgers, 72 orioles) missed the playoffs despite leading again in least runs allowed, and only one team ranked lower than 5th the following year. the average rank for non-playoff repeaters was 6th place in runs, 4th in runs allowed; taking the nine teams as a whole, the avgs are 4th place in runs, 3d in pitching.

implications? for all the worry about the arms, it may be the cardinal bats that decide the team's fate. not a given that they're gonna produce 850 runs again . . . . and if they don't, look out.