like icarus ascending . . . .
the cardinals won the nl central by 13 games last year. historically, how have teams who won by such healthy margins performed the following year?
since the six-division era began in 1995, 14 teams have won their division by 13 games or more. nine of them repeated as division champs the following year. the other five — including the 2002 cardinals — missed the next season’s playoffs entirely.
all nine of those who did repeat lost ground in the standings, an average of 11 games; if we include the non-repeaters, the average loss in the gb column is 15 games. the fourteen teams won an average of 8.5 fewer games the following year — one team actually increased its win total, another held serve, and the remaining 12 won fewer games.
no earth-shattering revelations here. the survey merely confirms what we already knew: the cards are not going to win 105 games in 2005, they’ll have to battle to repeat as division champs, and there’s a very real chance they might lose the battle.
but suppose we remove the new york yankees from this survey, and look only at teams that must operate within roughly the same budget constraints as their division rivals? that leaves us with twelve runaway division winners, of whom seven repeated. . . . and if we eliminate the cleveland indians, who for half a decade had absolutely no competition in the al central, and look only at budget-constrained division champs who play in competitive divisions — ie, teams like the cardinals — we are left with nine runaway winners and five repeaters. three of those instances are accounted for by the atlanta braves, a rich team in a weak division. remove THAT advantaged franchise from the equation and the outlook is downright gloomy: six runaway winners and only two repeat champs, the 1998-99 houston astros and the 2002-03 minnesota twins.
essentially there are two types of runaway champs, one — cleveland, ny, and atl — whose domination reflects real advantages (bigger budget, better players) over the division, and another — everybody else — whose robust margin results from one-year advantages that don't carry over into the next season. what "one-year advantages" do i mean? oh, like a lucky convergence of career years, an absence of injuries, a glut of injuries on division rivals' rosters . . . . the kind of advantages the cardinals enjoyed last year.
that should give serious pause to st louisans hoping for another season of glory. recent history has not been kind to teams like the 2005 cardinals.
REPEATERS
2002 min: won by 13.5 games, repeated by 4
2002 atl: won by 19 games, repeated by 9
2001 yanks: won by 13.5 games, repeated by 10
1998 atl: won by 18 games, repeated by 11.5
1998 hou: won by 12.5 games, repeated by 1
1998 yanks: won by 22 games, repeated by 4
1996 cle: won by 14.5 games, repeated by 6
1995 cle: won by 30 games, repeated by 14.5
1995 atl: won by 21 games, repeated by 8
NONREPEATERS
2003 sf: won by 15, finished 2d by 2.5
2002 stl: won by 13, finished 3d by 3
2001 sea: won by 14, finished 3d by 9
1999 cle: won by 21.5, finished 2d by 5
1999 ari: won by 14, finished 3d by 12
since the six-division era began in 1995, 14 teams have won their division by 13 games or more. nine of them repeated as division champs the following year. the other five — including the 2002 cardinals — missed the next season’s playoffs entirely.
all nine of those who did repeat lost ground in the standings, an average of 11 games; if we include the non-repeaters, the average loss in the gb column is 15 games. the fourteen teams won an average of 8.5 fewer games the following year — one team actually increased its win total, another held serve, and the remaining 12 won fewer games.
no earth-shattering revelations here. the survey merely confirms what we already knew: the cards are not going to win 105 games in 2005, they’ll have to battle to repeat as division champs, and there’s a very real chance they might lose the battle.
but suppose we remove the new york yankees from this survey, and look only at teams that must operate within roughly the same budget constraints as their division rivals? that leaves us with twelve runaway division winners, of whom seven repeated. . . . and if we eliminate the cleveland indians, who for half a decade had absolutely no competition in the al central, and look only at budget-constrained division champs who play in competitive divisions — ie, teams like the cardinals — we are left with nine runaway winners and five repeaters. three of those instances are accounted for by the atlanta braves, a rich team in a weak division. remove THAT advantaged franchise from the equation and the outlook is downright gloomy: six runaway winners and only two repeat champs, the 1998-99 houston astros and the 2002-03 minnesota twins.
essentially there are two types of runaway champs, one — cleveland, ny, and atl — whose domination reflects real advantages (bigger budget, better players) over the division, and another — everybody else — whose robust margin results from one-year advantages that don't carry over into the next season. what "one-year advantages" do i mean? oh, like a lucky convergence of career years, an absence of injuries, a glut of injuries on division rivals' rosters . . . . the kind of advantages the cardinals enjoyed last year.
that should give serious pause to st louisans hoping for another season of glory. recent history has not been kind to teams like the 2005 cardinals.
REPEATERS
2002 min: won by 13.5 games, repeated by 4
2002 atl: won by 19 games, repeated by 9
2001 yanks: won by 13.5 games, repeated by 10
1998 atl: won by 18 games, repeated by 11.5
1998 hou: won by 12.5 games, repeated by 1
1998 yanks: won by 22 games, repeated by 4
1996 cle: won by 14.5 games, repeated by 6
1995 cle: won by 30 games, repeated by 14.5
1995 atl: won by 21 games, repeated by 8
NONREPEATERS
2003 sf: won by 15, finished 2d by 2.5
2002 stl: won by 13, finished 3d by 3
2001 sea: won by 14, finished 3d by 9
1999 cle: won by 21.5, finished 2d by 5
1999 ari: won by 14, finished 3d by 12
posted by L Boros at 8:19 AM
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