as the keystone krumbles
another unusual thing about the ’05 cardinals: they are the first team in memory that will attempt to defend a pennant with an all-new keystone combination.
every pennant winner since 1960 has returned either its 2b or its ss. that surprises me, particularly given the annual free-agent scramble of the last 15 yrs or so. it’s no longer uncommon for a pennant winner to turn over half its starting lineup between the world series and next year’s opening day. but ev’yone, it seems, wants an anchor in the middle of the diamond.
that the cardinals won’t have one is not intrinsically significant; a lot of teams hung onto both keystone players but stunk the following year anyway. that includes the last three cardinal pennant winners (82, 85, 87), who returned smith and herr to their posts all three times yet never broke .500 in defending a pennant. but the fact remains that in replacing both 2b and ss, they are doing something no pennant winner of the last 45 years has seen fit to attempt.
the ones who came closest were the 2000 braves and the 1991 athletics. both clubs let their 2b go in the offseason (bret boone and willie randolph, respectively) and, though retaining their ss — walt weiss in both cases, interestingly enough — replaced him early in the next season. weiss opened 1991 in his accustomed place for the a’s, but an injury limited him to only 40 games and 133 at-bats; mike bordick took over in the interim. with the braves, weiss was only nominally a "starting" shortstop in 1999 — he appeared in 102 games but yielded extensive playing time to ozzie guillen and jose hernandez. he returned in ’00 strictly as a bench player, rafael furcal having claimed the job in spring training.
the '90-'91 a’s and '99-'00 braves are both interesting models for '04-'05 cards. first, both teams won pennants with 103 wins (about the same number as the cards last year), then got swept in the world series. both (again, like the cards) got career years out of key players — the braves from chipper jones, kevin millwood, and john rocker, the a’s from scott sanderson, bob welch, rickey henderson (new highs in avg, hr, obp, slg, and tb), and dave stewart (career bests in wins, era, and whip). both had significant offseason turnover — the a’s lost starters at 3b (carney lansford), 2b (willie randolph), and rf (felix jose/willie mcgee), the braves at lf (gerald williams), 2b (bret boone), and 1b (ryan klesko). both had established themselves as perennial playoff contenders; and the a’s, of course, were a la russa-managed club.
the a’s suffered a 19-game decline in 1991 and missed the playoffs. dave stewart won half as many games and saw his era nearly double; bob welch’s win total dropped from 27 to 12, and his era went up by more than a run. the braves though didn’t miss a beat; they slipped back to 95 wins (mainly because of injuries to john smoltz and quilvio veras) but still won their division for the 9th consecutive time.
where will the cards fall? somewhere between the two, methinks, at +/- 92 wins.
every pennant winner since 1960 has returned either its 2b or its ss. that surprises me, particularly given the annual free-agent scramble of the last 15 yrs or so. it’s no longer uncommon for a pennant winner to turn over half its starting lineup between the world series and next year’s opening day. but ev’yone, it seems, wants an anchor in the middle of the diamond.
that the cardinals won’t have one is not intrinsically significant; a lot of teams hung onto both keystone players but stunk the following year anyway. that includes the last three cardinal pennant winners (82, 85, 87), who returned smith and herr to their posts all three times yet never broke .500 in defending a pennant. but the fact remains that in replacing both 2b and ss, they are doing something no pennant winner of the last 45 years has seen fit to attempt.
the ones who came closest were the 2000 braves and the 1991 athletics. both clubs let their 2b go in the offseason (bret boone and willie randolph, respectively) and, though retaining their ss — walt weiss in both cases, interestingly enough — replaced him early in the next season. weiss opened 1991 in his accustomed place for the a’s, but an injury limited him to only 40 games and 133 at-bats; mike bordick took over in the interim. with the braves, weiss was only nominally a "starting" shortstop in 1999 — he appeared in 102 games but yielded extensive playing time to ozzie guillen and jose hernandez. he returned in ’00 strictly as a bench player, rafael furcal having claimed the job in spring training.
the '90-'91 a’s and '99-'00 braves are both interesting models for '04-'05 cards. first, both teams won pennants with 103 wins (about the same number as the cards last year), then got swept in the world series. both (again, like the cards) got career years out of key players — the braves from chipper jones, kevin millwood, and john rocker, the a’s from scott sanderson, bob welch, rickey henderson (new highs in avg, hr, obp, slg, and tb), and dave stewart (career bests in wins, era, and whip). both had significant offseason turnover — the a’s lost starters at 3b (carney lansford), 2b (willie randolph), and rf (felix jose/willie mcgee), the braves at lf (gerald williams), 2b (bret boone), and 1b (ryan klesko). both had established themselves as perennial playoff contenders; and the a’s, of course, were a la russa-managed club.
the a’s suffered a 19-game decline in 1991 and missed the playoffs. dave stewart won half as many games and saw his era nearly double; bob welch’s win total dropped from 27 to 12, and his era went up by more than a run. the braves though didn’t miss a beat; they slipped back to 95 wins (mainly because of injuries to john smoltz and quilvio veras) but still won their division for the 9th consecutive time.
where will the cards fall? somewhere between the two, methinks, at +/- 92 wins.
posted by L Boros at 11:48 AM
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