range redux
a while back i guesstimated that david eckstein's limited range at shortstop "might cost the cardinals between 35 and 100 base hits — ie, 35-100 balls that edgar would have gloved."
in his post today at baseball musings, david pinto makes a similar guess. having examined minutely detailed data from the 2004 season, pinto estimates that eckstein cost the angels about 45 outs. further number-crunching at an angels blog called chronicles of the lads suggests that eck was worth negative 21 runs to the angel defense. i quote:
"David Eckstein had 3,562 balls in play against him. He made outs on 356 of these when about 400 would have been expected, based on the probabilities observed from 2002 through 2004. Using Dial's methodology, we find that he prevented 268.43 runs where 301.81 would have been expected; so he's -33.37 Runs Against Expected. We convert that to 4,000 BIP to get a number of -37.47. However, as the average SS was -16.22, that makes Eck -21.26 against average, which is pretty bad."
more than "pretty" bad, actually --- the only shortstops who cost their teams more runs were nomar garciaparra and felipe lopez. the same post shows edgar renteria in the middle of the pack at negative three runs, which means (if you buy all this analysis) that the switch to eckstein will cost the cards something like 18 runs ---- or 2 to 3 games in the standings.
if stl misses the playoffs by 2 games, we'll know whose fault it is.
in his post today at baseball musings, david pinto makes a similar guess. having examined minutely detailed data from the 2004 season, pinto estimates that eckstein cost the angels about 45 outs. further number-crunching at an angels blog called chronicles of the lads suggests that eck was worth negative 21 runs to the angel defense. i quote:
"David Eckstein had 3,562 balls in play against him. He made outs on 356 of these when about 400 would have been expected, based on the probabilities observed from 2002 through 2004. Using Dial's methodology, we find that he prevented 268.43 runs where 301.81 would have been expected; so he's -33.37 Runs Against Expected. We convert that to 4,000 BIP to get a number of -37.47. However, as the average SS was -16.22, that makes Eck -21.26 against average, which is pretty bad."
more than "pretty" bad, actually --- the only shortstops who cost their teams more runs were nomar garciaparra and felipe lopez. the same post shows edgar renteria in the middle of the pack at negative three runs, which means (if you buy all this analysis) that the switch to eckstein will cost the cards something like 18 runs ---- or 2 to 3 games in the standings.
if stl misses the playoffs by 2 games, we'll know whose fault it is.
posted by L Boros at 1:17 PM
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