Grudzing Acceptance

mark grudzielanek: the second, slightly younger and slightly cheaper coming of fernando vina. per 600 at-bats, they are the same player. look:

vina: 88 r, 169 h, 40 xbh, 48 bi, 41 bb, .282 ba, .348 obp, .379 slg
grud: 81 r, 173 h, 43 xbh, 52 bi, 32 bb, .287 ba, .330 obp, .389 slg

not a whole lot to choose from. vina gets on base about 15 more times a year; grudz has a shade more pop, but the diff'nces are so small they're not worth discussing.

what is worth discussing is that grudz is a year younger and about two million bucks cheaper than fernando; also that he's coming off two straight good years, in each of which he bested his career marks in batting avg, obp, and slugging. of course, hitting in the friendly confines had something to do with that. . . . also, players in their mid-30s don't usually escape their career orbit and zoom off on some new trajectory. grudz'anek could well come crashing back to earth, as vina did in 2003 after a string of above-avg seasons.

grudzielanek won't win any gold gloves (vina won two for the cards), but his errors and range factors have gen'lly been above the league avg.

i'd have preferred roberto alomar, who in his three worst seasons (2002-04) has been nearly as productive as grudz'anek at his best. again, per 600 ab:

alomar 78 r, 147 h, 40 xbh, 54 bi, 61 bb, .263 ba, .331 obp, .368 slg
grudzk 81 r, 173 h, 43 xbh, 52 bi, 32 bb, .287 ba, .330 obp, .389 slg

even at his diminished capacity, alomar's roughly even with grudz'k --- and with just a minor return to form he becomes a significantly better offensive player.

one last comparison: placido polanco, who at 29 is still in his prime and has been consistently good for the last five years. per 600:

polanc 88 r, 177 h, 42 xbh, 59 bi, 34 bb, .295 ba, .339 obp, .410 slg
grudzk 81 r, 173 h, 43 xbh, 52 bi, 32 bb, .287 ba, .330 obp, .389 slg

polanco's slightly better, but not that much ---- certainly not $4 million worth, which is how much he'll out-earn grudz'k by this season.

the data leave me no choice but to revoke my knee-jerk objections to this signing. the cardinals got another good deal ---- decent player, low price. but i have to keep asking: what good are all these "value" signings if the cards don't put the savings back into the roster? they're now spending less than they did last year at catcher, shortstop, and (now that tino's contract has expired) 1st base; and they're at least $10 million cheaper in the rotation. what's walter waiting for? and with his lineup pretty much set, what would he spend the money on anyway?

i'm thinking (hoping) he stuffs the cash in his pocket until july 1 and goes after another ace for the rotation . . . .