Matchup: Cards Boxos
world series begins tonight at fenway park, home of unlikely al champion red sox. they have just become the first team in history to rally from a 3-0 series deficit, upsetting the detested yankees in unprecedented fashion. matchup between these two teams is wide open. each led its league in runs scored — the first time that has happened since the great 1975 series between the red sox and the reds.
funny, because i (and many others) have likened this cardinals team to the big red machine: an overpowering lineup that hits, slugs, and runs, plays great defense, has impeccable fundamentals, and above all plays with intelligence. . . . coupled with just enough pitching to make it work. likewise, these red sox resemble the sox of 1975: strong starting pitching, up the middle defense, home-run power at nearly every position, and a heavily involved, multifaceted set of bench players. that team, too, reached the series by knocking off a dynastic opponent — the three-time defending champ oakland a’s.
consider how the game has changed: those ’75 boxos led the league in runs scored yet had only one player with 100+ runs, only two with 100+ rbis, and only two with more than 20 homers — rookies jim rice (22) and fred lynn (21). (rice, it will be recalled, missed the entire world series with an injury.) conversely, boxo pitchers that year tossed 62 complete games — 52 from the trio of el tiante, spaceman lee, and ex-cardinal rick wise. the bullpen "closer" was the forgettable dick drago, credited with 15 "saves."
to the numbers:
the ’xos led the majors with 949 runs scored. they outscored their opponents by 181 runs (vs cards 196) and outhomered them by 63 (vs cards’ 45). they were 4th in their league with 222 homers — eight more than the cards — and first in obp (.360) and slugging (.472). they were only 11th in their league in runs allowed, yielding 768, despite yielding the fewest home runs in the al (159) and allowing the league’s lowest on-base avg and baserunners per inning. to repeat: they gave up the fewest baserunners and the fewest homers, yet gave up the 11th-most runs. that’s because they gave up an ungodly 94 unearned runs, most in the american league, thanks to 118 errors (11th in loop) and only 129 double plays (13th). of course, the dp figure is depressed by the lack of men on base . . . . but it’s still a weak number. another factor in the inflated runs-against total: sox pitchers gave up 123 stolen bases, most in the league.
these figures suggest that the cards need to exploit their speed. the ’xos don’t give up homers and they don’t give up lots of baserunners — ie don’t give up long rallies. but you can get ’em by running and putting pressure on their weak defense. neither boxos playoff opponent to date has had much of a baserunning threat; st louis has womack (lumbars willing) and renteria, plus walker and sanders. these guys are gonna have to get on, and when they do they’re gonna have to run. whiteyball returns!
the cards have now yielded 21 homers in 98 postseason innings — two a game — and their staff now holds the record for hrs allowed in a single nlcs, 14 to houston. these figures stink. but the stl staff is the converse of the ’xos staff, in that despite the horrible hr figure they still keep the opponent off the board. their postseason era of 3.84 is the best among the eight participants, and they have yielded only 43 runs in 11 games — a run a game better than their next closest competitor. they have given up only 78 hits in 98 innings pitched; their oba against is a miserly .305. and the defense has been stellar, saving runs and committing only one error thus far. the home runs are the achilles’ heel — nearly got them beat against houston, and could cost them this series. but thus far the staff has managed to stave off the big inning, keep the team in the game long enough for the cardinal bats to post big innings of their own.
doing the same will be key against boston. the ’xos lineup is patient and powerful, boasting six regulars with obas of .380 or better and six with 18 or more home runs. however, their power is not well distributed — two players (manny ramirez and david ortiz) have 40+ homers, but nobody else has more than 20. they are going to swat some dingers, no doubt about it; the cards’ task is to otherwise keep them off base.
the ’xos have posted an unsightly 5.20 postseason era, but it’s inflated by that 19-run bruise sustained in game 3 against new york. set that to the side, and their pitching stats are comparable to the cards’. they will get four starts out of curt schilling and pedro martinez, with tim wakefield and derek lowe picking up the other three. schilling is wounded and pedro is fading, but they’re both still more dominating than anybody the cardinals will throw out there. they have a very good closer, keith foulke, and altho the bullpen has let them down this postseason it is not terrible. erstwhile starter bronson arroyo bolsters the setup corps, which otherwise features ex-card mike timlin and lefty one-hitter specialists alan embree and mike myers. those two will be asked to handle walker and edmonds from the 6th inning on, i reckon. both men had a spot of trouble with the longball — embree 7 dingers in 52 innings, myers 5 in 42.
it has the makings of a memorable series — both teams with obvious advantages over the other, the right equipment to attack each other’s vulnerabilities. boston has four games at home, a definite advantage; also the stronger starting pitchers. but they play ragged, inconsistent baseball — viz three straight losses followed by four straight wins in alcs. i think their best chance of victory is to blow the series open early, win it in four or five games. a longer series, imho, favors the steadier, sounder, more well-rounded team: the cardinals.
there’s a history there. i call it st louis in seven.
funny, because i (and many others) have likened this cardinals team to the big red machine: an overpowering lineup that hits, slugs, and runs, plays great defense, has impeccable fundamentals, and above all plays with intelligence. . . . coupled with just enough pitching to make it work. likewise, these red sox resemble the sox of 1975: strong starting pitching, up the middle defense, home-run power at nearly every position, and a heavily involved, multifaceted set of bench players. that team, too, reached the series by knocking off a dynastic opponent — the three-time defending champ oakland a’s.
consider how the game has changed: those ’75 boxos led the league in runs scored yet had only one player with 100+ runs, only two with 100+ rbis, and only two with more than 20 homers — rookies jim rice (22) and fred lynn (21). (rice, it will be recalled, missed the entire world series with an injury.) conversely, boxo pitchers that year tossed 62 complete games — 52 from the trio of el tiante, spaceman lee, and ex-cardinal rick wise. the bullpen "closer" was the forgettable dick drago, credited with 15 "saves."
to the numbers:
the ’xos led the majors with 949 runs scored. they outscored their opponents by 181 runs (vs cards 196) and outhomered them by 63 (vs cards’ 45). they were 4th in their league with 222 homers — eight more than the cards — and first in obp (.360) and slugging (.472). they were only 11th in their league in runs allowed, yielding 768, despite yielding the fewest home runs in the al (159) and allowing the league’s lowest on-base avg and baserunners per inning. to repeat: they gave up the fewest baserunners and the fewest homers, yet gave up the 11th-most runs. that’s because they gave up an ungodly 94 unearned runs, most in the american league, thanks to 118 errors (11th in loop) and only 129 double plays (13th). of course, the dp figure is depressed by the lack of men on base . . . . but it’s still a weak number. another factor in the inflated runs-against total: sox pitchers gave up 123 stolen bases, most in the league.
these figures suggest that the cards need to exploit their speed. the ’xos don’t give up homers and they don’t give up lots of baserunners — ie don’t give up long rallies. but you can get ’em by running and putting pressure on their weak defense. neither boxos playoff opponent to date has had much of a baserunning threat; st louis has womack (lumbars willing) and renteria, plus walker and sanders. these guys are gonna have to get on, and when they do they’re gonna have to run. whiteyball returns!
the cards have now yielded 21 homers in 98 postseason innings — two a game — and their staff now holds the record for hrs allowed in a single nlcs, 14 to houston. these figures stink. but the stl staff is the converse of the ’xos staff, in that despite the horrible hr figure they still keep the opponent off the board. their postseason era of 3.84 is the best among the eight participants, and they have yielded only 43 runs in 11 games — a run a game better than their next closest competitor. they have given up only 78 hits in 98 innings pitched; their oba against is a miserly .305. and the defense has been stellar, saving runs and committing only one error thus far. the home runs are the achilles’ heel — nearly got them beat against houston, and could cost them this series. but thus far the staff has managed to stave off the big inning, keep the team in the game long enough for the cardinal bats to post big innings of their own.
doing the same will be key against boston. the ’xos lineup is patient and powerful, boasting six regulars with obas of .380 or better and six with 18 or more home runs. however, their power is not well distributed — two players (manny ramirez and david ortiz) have 40+ homers, but nobody else has more than 20. they are going to swat some dingers, no doubt about it; the cards’ task is to otherwise keep them off base.
the ’xos have posted an unsightly 5.20 postseason era, but it’s inflated by that 19-run bruise sustained in game 3 against new york. set that to the side, and their pitching stats are comparable to the cards’. they will get four starts out of curt schilling and pedro martinez, with tim wakefield and derek lowe picking up the other three. schilling is wounded and pedro is fading, but they’re both still more dominating than anybody the cardinals will throw out there. they have a very good closer, keith foulke, and altho the bullpen has let them down this postseason it is not terrible. erstwhile starter bronson arroyo bolsters the setup corps, which otherwise features ex-card mike timlin and lefty one-hitter specialists alan embree and mike myers. those two will be asked to handle walker and edmonds from the 6th inning on, i reckon. both men had a spot of trouble with the longball — embree 7 dingers in 52 innings, myers 5 in 42.
it has the makings of a memorable series — both teams with obvious advantages over the other, the right equipment to attack each other’s vulnerabilities. boston has four games at home, a definite advantage; also the stronger starting pitchers. but they play ragged, inconsistent baseball — viz three straight losses followed by four straight wins in alcs. i think their best chance of victory is to blow the series open early, win it in four or five games. a longer series, imho, favors the steadier, sounder, more well-rounded team: the cardinals.
there’s a history there. i call it st louis in seven.
posted by L Boros at 6:14 AM
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