Matchup: Cards LA
cardinals finish the season a major-league best 105-57. they scored the most runs in the league (855) and allowed the least (659), and even set the pace in "defensive efficiency ratio," ie the percentage of batted balls converted into outs. led the loop in assorted other statistical categories as well, and ranked among the top three or four in most ev’ything else. they enter the playoffs with only one chink in the statistical armor: 169 homers allowed, 7th-best in the league.
could be trouble — their first-round opponent, the dodgers, swatted 203 homers, 4th best in nl. but l.a. offense does not impress overall — just 9th in runs scored, 10th in batting average, 8th in both on-base and slugging. and their pitchers will have their own problems keeping the cards in the park — they allowed 178 homers, 10th in the league; also 4th in era, 6th in runs allowed. the cards outhomered the dodgers 216-203, out-differentialed them 196-77, out-era’d them by a quarter of a run (3.75-4.01); they yielded fewer walks, fewer hits, fewer homers. the dodgers hold only one significant statistical advantage: they committed just 73 errors (leading the league) to the cards’ 97.
by the numbers, it should not be a difficult matchup for the cards; nearly every leading indicator forecasts victory. however, they enter the postseason without their best pitcher (chris carpenter, lost to an unusual nerve ailment) and with bruises and scrapes plaguing scott rolen, steve kline, tony womack, and albert pujols. so the playoff health hex remains alive and well. a second starting pitcher, matt morris, is less healthy than he lets on; finally admits to a tender shoulder after a frightfully inconsistent season in which he failed to pitch out of the third inning on half a dozen or so occasions. as it was entering the regular season, the starting pitching is a big question mark: will it be good enough? of the four pitchers they will throw at l.a., three (morris suppan and williams) had era’s over 4.00; jason marquis set the pace at 3.71. all four of them allowed more than a hit per inning.
again, though, the dodger offense appears ill-equipped to attack these exposed flanks. and they have exposed flanks of their own, beginning w lame-armed ace brad penny, who ironically has the same nerve thing that ails stl ace carpenter. the dodgers do have perhaps the best starter in the series, odalis perez, who compiled a 3.25 era and a 44-128 walk-k ratio. but he didn’t throw any cgs and, thanks to unlucky bullpen support, finished with just 7 wins (v 6 losses). their two other starters, jeff weaver and jose lima, are as hittable as the cards’ starters, though weaver has the profile of a good postseason performer (220 innings, 153 ks, only 19 hr allowed). none of the three won more than 13 games.
perez and weaver will pitch two games apiece, giving l.a. a slight advantage in the rotations. but the bullpen edge goes to the cards, who as a group yielded a very impressive 73 fewer hits than innings pitched (290 h in 363 ip) and only 26 hr. remove gopher-prone cal eldred from the equation and that hr ratio is 15 allowed in 296 ip. these are comforting stats, suggesting the cards are well-armed for the type of tight wins the postseason demands. but the dodgers have the game’s most unhittable closer, greg gagne, and a capable bullpen corps of their own. the cards did stumble down the stretch, going 13-13 in their last 26 games; but l.a. finished in an 11-11 funk that nearly cost them their playoff berth. i think the cards can and will take them.
btw, the scariest nl team in the tournament is also the least likely and probably least deserving — the astros, who snuck in as the wild card. they took forever to get their act together, were under .500 as late as early august but finished with a torrid six weeks to get to 92 wins. they have two dominating starters, roger clemens and roy oswalt, and an explosive lineup; they swept the cardinals two weeks ago and will likely face them again in the nlcs, after dispatching the braves. astros are about as mediocre statistically as you can be — finished between 6th and 9th in nearly ev’y key category, led the league in nothing, indeed finished top 4 in almost nothing. but nobody wants to play them this month.
x-factor: "astros" is an anagram for "ass rot."
could be trouble — their first-round opponent, the dodgers, swatted 203 homers, 4th best in nl. but l.a. offense does not impress overall — just 9th in runs scored, 10th in batting average, 8th in both on-base and slugging. and their pitchers will have their own problems keeping the cards in the park — they allowed 178 homers, 10th in the league; also 4th in era, 6th in runs allowed. the cards outhomered the dodgers 216-203, out-differentialed them 196-77, out-era’d them by a quarter of a run (3.75-4.01); they yielded fewer walks, fewer hits, fewer homers. the dodgers hold only one significant statistical advantage: they committed just 73 errors (leading the league) to the cards’ 97.
by the numbers, it should not be a difficult matchup for the cards; nearly every leading indicator forecasts victory. however, they enter the postseason without their best pitcher (chris carpenter, lost to an unusual nerve ailment) and with bruises and scrapes plaguing scott rolen, steve kline, tony womack, and albert pujols. so the playoff health hex remains alive and well. a second starting pitcher, matt morris, is less healthy than he lets on; finally admits to a tender shoulder after a frightfully inconsistent season in which he failed to pitch out of the third inning on half a dozen or so occasions. as it was entering the regular season, the starting pitching is a big question mark: will it be good enough? of the four pitchers they will throw at l.a., three (morris suppan and williams) had era’s over 4.00; jason marquis set the pace at 3.71. all four of them allowed more than a hit per inning.
again, though, the dodger offense appears ill-equipped to attack these exposed flanks. and they have exposed flanks of their own, beginning w lame-armed ace brad penny, who ironically has the same nerve thing that ails stl ace carpenter. the dodgers do have perhaps the best starter in the series, odalis perez, who compiled a 3.25 era and a 44-128 walk-k ratio. but he didn’t throw any cgs and, thanks to unlucky bullpen support, finished with just 7 wins (v 6 losses). their two other starters, jeff weaver and jose lima, are as hittable as the cards’ starters, though weaver has the profile of a good postseason performer (220 innings, 153 ks, only 19 hr allowed). none of the three won more than 13 games.
perez and weaver will pitch two games apiece, giving l.a. a slight advantage in the rotations. but the bullpen edge goes to the cards, who as a group yielded a very impressive 73 fewer hits than innings pitched (290 h in 363 ip) and only 26 hr. remove gopher-prone cal eldred from the equation and that hr ratio is 15 allowed in 296 ip. these are comforting stats, suggesting the cards are well-armed for the type of tight wins the postseason demands. but the dodgers have the game’s most unhittable closer, greg gagne, and a capable bullpen corps of their own. the cards did stumble down the stretch, going 13-13 in their last 26 games; but l.a. finished in an 11-11 funk that nearly cost them their playoff berth. i think the cards can and will take them.
btw, the scariest nl team in the tournament is also the least likely and probably least deserving — the astros, who snuck in as the wild card. they took forever to get their act together, were under .500 as late as early august but finished with a torrid six weeks to get to 92 wins. they have two dominating starters, roger clemens and roy oswalt, and an explosive lineup; they swept the cardinals two weeks ago and will likely face them again in the nlcs, after dispatching the braves. astros are about as mediocre statistically as you can be — finished between 6th and 9th in nearly ev’y key category, led the league in nothing, indeed finished top 4 in almost nothing. but nobody wants to play them this month.
x-factor: "astros" is an anagram for "ass rot."
posted by L Boros at 6:22 AM
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