Matchup: Cards Astros
cards-astros matchup breakdown:
macro indicators strongly favor cards. st louis outscored houstonians 855-803 and outpitched them 659-698; outscored opponents by 196 runs, vs astros’ 105-run differential. cards win era, 3.75 to 4.05; homers hit (214-187) and allowed (169-174); pitchers issued 85 fewer walks and 38 fewer hits; defense made fewer errors (97-101) and turned more dps (154-136). the cards had the highest defensive efficiency rating in the league; houston ranked 14th. cards advantaged in on-base avg, slugging, and batting average. the cards hold every statistical edge in this series; a clean sweep. whereas the cards finished at or near the top of the league in nearly every category, the astros were uniformly middling — between 6th and 9th place in almost every important benchmark, both hitting and pitching. these numbers point unambiguously to a st louis victory.
the caveats go like this:
1. houston has the two most dominant starters in the series, indeed arguably the two most dominant in the national league this year — rogers clemens and roy oswalt.
2. they are the hottest team in baseball, having played almost .800 ball over the final month and a half to storm into the playoffs.
3. they set a scoring record in the first round of the playoffs by scoring 36 runs in five games against atlanta — who, by the way, led the league in era by one point over the cardinals. in their three wins, houston scored 12, 9, and 8 runs. for the series, they outscored atlanta 36-21, and outhomered them 11-7.
4. they won the season series v st louis, 10-8, including 5 wins in 6 september outings. they swept the cards twice — at busch in april, and at enron in september.
the homers are of particular concern to me. though stl pitchers had the lowest first-round staff era (3.09), they yielded 7 homers in four games — mostly solo shots, but still. houston fields five starters with 20-plus dingers, plus a half-time outfielder who rapped 14. their ballpark generates nearly as many homers as coors field. ballpark factor cuts both ways — st louis hits ’em too, and at a faster rate than they give ’em up — but oswalt and clemens figure not to get tagged all that often.
the same cannot be said for the houston bullpen, which coughs up taters prodigiously. dan micelli (who otherwise pitched very well) gave up 10 in 77 innings. a pitcher named d wheeler (don’t know 1st name) allowed 10 in 65 ip. mike gallo: 12 in 49 ip; c harville: 8 in 53. cumulatively, that’s a dinger ev’y six innings. so the cards will need to work deep counts in the early innings and tire starters out before the 7th; that’ll give them five or six outs to work on the soft part of the bullpen.
the last three or four outs though belong to brad lidge, who struck out 157 guys in 94 innings and had a 1.90 era. he allowed the cardinals one lonely hit in 9-plus innings of work against them this year.
the cards catch a break in the rotation pairings, as clemens and oswalt both pitched twice in round 1 and thus will not appear until games 3 and 4 here. if they make subsequent starts, they’ll have to do so on short rest in games 6 and 7. journeymen brad backe and pete munro (4.30 and 5.15 eras, respectively) will divide the three remaining starts. when clemens does start, expect roger cedeno to be in left field — he’s a lifetime 10 for 23 against the rocket with 6 walks. scott rolen has touched clemens for 2 homers in 12 career at-bats, and tony womack’s a lifetime 4 for 10; but jim edmonds hits just .205 against him, pujols .222, renteria .235. the roster’s combined career avg v clemens: .226.
and just .244 v roy oswalt, though pujols (.344) and renteria (.320) do hit him.
no cardinal pitcher can boast such domination against the astros. on the contrary, hou hitters appear to be pretty comfortable against all our starters — combined career avg of .299 v williams, .281 v morris, .299 v suppan, .341 v marquis ……. these are really alarming numbers. this season, at least, both morris and williams pitched reasonably well against houston — they’ll starts games 1-2 and 5-6 against houston’s weakest pitchers, backe and munro.
nonetheless, micro numbers make clear that houston possesses the bats and the arms to win the series; no question about it. st louis will have to keep the ball in the park, limit hou to solo shots, maybe outslug them 8-6 once or twice. because the stros rely so heavily on oswalt and clemens, the pressure will really be on that tandem; if the cards steal just one win against either pitcher they likely win the series. houston meanwhile would probably be thrilled with a win in just one of the three munro - backe starts.
and what am i predicting? matt morris wins the clincher at home in game 6 vs a fading clemens. as much as the matchups seem to favor the astros, you can’t ignore the macro statistical markers — particularly when they’re as skewed to one side as they are here. houston will put up some runs, but the cards can score a little too. stl pitchers, underestimated all year, have generally risen to the occasion, and the bar is not high; all they need to do is grind out six innings, keep card bats within striking distance, then turn it over to the bullpen.
macro indicators strongly favor cards. st louis outscored houstonians 855-803 and outpitched them 659-698; outscored opponents by 196 runs, vs astros’ 105-run differential. cards win era, 3.75 to 4.05; homers hit (214-187) and allowed (169-174); pitchers issued 85 fewer walks and 38 fewer hits; defense made fewer errors (97-101) and turned more dps (154-136). the cards had the highest defensive efficiency rating in the league; houston ranked 14th. cards advantaged in on-base avg, slugging, and batting average. the cards hold every statistical edge in this series; a clean sweep. whereas the cards finished at or near the top of the league in nearly every category, the astros were uniformly middling — between 6th and 9th place in almost every important benchmark, both hitting and pitching. these numbers point unambiguously to a st louis victory.
the caveats go like this:
1. houston has the two most dominant starters in the series, indeed arguably the two most dominant in the national league this year — rogers clemens and roy oswalt.
2. they are the hottest team in baseball, having played almost .800 ball over the final month and a half to storm into the playoffs.
3. they set a scoring record in the first round of the playoffs by scoring 36 runs in five games against atlanta — who, by the way, led the league in era by one point over the cardinals. in their three wins, houston scored 12, 9, and 8 runs. for the series, they outscored atlanta 36-21, and outhomered them 11-7.
4. they won the season series v st louis, 10-8, including 5 wins in 6 september outings. they swept the cards twice — at busch in april, and at enron in september.
the homers are of particular concern to me. though stl pitchers had the lowest first-round staff era (3.09), they yielded 7 homers in four games — mostly solo shots, but still. houston fields five starters with 20-plus dingers, plus a half-time outfielder who rapped 14. their ballpark generates nearly as many homers as coors field. ballpark factor cuts both ways — st louis hits ’em too, and at a faster rate than they give ’em up — but oswalt and clemens figure not to get tagged all that often.
the same cannot be said for the houston bullpen, which coughs up taters prodigiously. dan micelli (who otherwise pitched very well) gave up 10 in 77 innings. a pitcher named d wheeler (don’t know 1st name) allowed 10 in 65 ip. mike gallo: 12 in 49 ip; c harville: 8 in 53. cumulatively, that’s a dinger ev’y six innings. so the cards will need to work deep counts in the early innings and tire starters out before the 7th; that’ll give them five or six outs to work on the soft part of the bullpen.
the last three or four outs though belong to brad lidge, who struck out 157 guys in 94 innings and had a 1.90 era. he allowed the cardinals one lonely hit in 9-plus innings of work against them this year.
the cards catch a break in the rotation pairings, as clemens and oswalt both pitched twice in round 1 and thus will not appear until games 3 and 4 here. if they make subsequent starts, they’ll have to do so on short rest in games 6 and 7. journeymen brad backe and pete munro (4.30 and 5.15 eras, respectively) will divide the three remaining starts. when clemens does start, expect roger cedeno to be in left field — he’s a lifetime 10 for 23 against the rocket with 6 walks. scott rolen has touched clemens for 2 homers in 12 career at-bats, and tony womack’s a lifetime 4 for 10; but jim edmonds hits just .205 against him, pujols .222, renteria .235. the roster’s combined career avg v clemens: .226.
and just .244 v roy oswalt, though pujols (.344) and renteria (.320) do hit him.
no cardinal pitcher can boast such domination against the astros. on the contrary, hou hitters appear to be pretty comfortable against all our starters — combined career avg of .299 v williams, .281 v morris, .299 v suppan, .341 v marquis ……. these are really alarming numbers. this season, at least, both morris and williams pitched reasonably well against houston — they’ll starts games 1-2 and 5-6 against houston’s weakest pitchers, backe and munro.
nonetheless, micro numbers make clear that houston possesses the bats and the arms to win the series; no question about it. st louis will have to keep the ball in the park, limit hou to solo shots, maybe outslug them 8-6 once or twice. because the stros rely so heavily on oswalt and clemens, the pressure will really be on that tandem; if the cards steal just one win against either pitcher they likely win the series. houston meanwhile would probably be thrilled with a win in just one of the three munro - backe starts.
and what am i predicting? matt morris wins the clincher at home in game 6 vs a fading clemens. as much as the matchups seem to favor the astros, you can’t ignore the macro statistical markers — particularly when they’re as skewed to one side as they are here. houston will put up some runs, but the cards can score a little too. stl pitchers, underestimated all year, have generally risen to the occasion, and the bar is not high; all they need to do is grind out six innings, keep card bats within striking distance, then turn it over to the bullpen.
posted by L Boros at 6:12 AM
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