eck'n called to a count

josh schulz has a state-of-the-shortstops post up today at the birdwatch, comparing renteria v eckstein to date; he accurately concludes: "The Cardinals are getting a slightly better performance out of just a third the salary the Red Sox are paying."

i’ve been meaning to check out how the patek-esque eckstein holds up over a 162-game pounding; went to espn’s three-year splits and found that david does just fine — .266ba/.338obp pre all-star break, .287/.352 post break since 2002. so no worries on that score. but as i trolled around on that page one other thing jumped out at me: david eckstein hits from behind in the count too much. check this out:

ab on 1-0 or 2-0: 93 (6 pct of total ab)
ab on 0-1 or 0-2: 403 (25 pct)

whoa. as you might expect, the results on the top line (.355 avg, .534 slg) shame those on the bottom line (.263 avg, .320 slg). turns out david’s not much of a 1st-pitch swinger either — only 104 at-bats ending on 0-0, though he did well when he put those balls in play (.308 avg, .375 slg). in sum, eck’n has only put the first strike in play (ie, at-bats ending 0-0, 1-0, or 2-0) 197 times, or 12 percent of his at-bats — whereas 42 percent of his at-bats end with eckstein behind in the count (ie, on 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2):

ab on 1st strike: 197 (12 pct)
ab behind in count: 686 (42 pct)

that seemed like an unbelievably skewed distribution of at-bats — and badly in eckn’s disfavor. basically, david hits from behind in the count about four times as often as he hits from ahead. and that ain’t good. i looked at some other hitters as a check, beginning with eckn’s dp partner, mark grud’k:
total ab: 1274
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 167 (13 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 260 (20 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 363 (28 percent)
ab behind in count: 440 (35 percent)

a far more balanced spread. and grud’k is a phenomenal 1st-strike hitter — 388 avg, .554 slg — while he’s pretty much toast once he falls behind in the count — after 0-1, he’s a .636 ops’er (.291 obp, .345 slg). so it makes sense for him to go up there hacking. but it would make sense if eck’n did likewise more often: his ops after falling behind 0-1 is only .634 (.299 obp, .335 slg). unfortunately, eck’n bats from an 0-1 hole in 56 percent of his at-bats.

next comparison is — who else? — last year’s ss, eddie renteria:
total ab: 1717
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 238 (14 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 312 (18 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 493: (29 pct)
ab behind in count: 535 (31 pct)

edgar’s obviously a diff’nt type of hitter, but then we already knew that . . . . how about last year’s leadoff man?
total ab: 1492
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 128 (9 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 312 (21 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 230: (15 pct)
ab behind in count: 594 (40 pct)

womack’s pattern is similar to eckn’s, but it’s still not nearly as skewed. check out their ratios of 1-0/2-0 ab to 0-1/0-2 ab:
womack: 1:2.43
eck’n: 1:4.33
womack may hit from behind in the count too often, but compared to eckstein he is a wizard of ball-strike management.

how do a very good leadoff man’s at-bats shake out? let’s look at juan pierre:
total ab: 1938
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 261 (13 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 495 (26 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 472: (24 pct)
ab behind in count: 739 (38 pct)

again, not nearly as skewed as ecky. nor is jimmy rollins, whose career ab/obp are slightly worse than eck’s:
total ab: 1922
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 220 (11 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 324 (27 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 499: (26 pct)
ab behind in count: 584 (30 pct)

placido polanco has a very balanced allocation:
total ab: 1543
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 94 (15 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 301 (20 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 463: (30 pct)
ab behind in count: 492 (32 pct)

the only remotely close analog i could find (and i only looked at about 10 guys) was alex cora, one of the cards’ potential 2bmen in the offseason market:
total ab: 1140
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 94 (8 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 259 (23 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 213: (19 pct)
ab behind in count: 431 (38 pct)

if i kept looking i might find a few others who share eckstein’s profile in this regard. but it seems safe to say that eckstein takes a very specialized approach to his at-bats — or to put it less delicately, he’s either a weirdo or an outright freak when it comes to hitting. this is not to say that he’s a bad hitter; on the contrary, eckstein appears to have made this strategy work for him. tomorrow i’ll parse what he’s doing — and lodge a request with the little fellah to be more aggressive on one specific ball-strike count.

viva el birdos