looking out for the LOOGYs

on the same day jason i'hausen injured himself, the hardball times ran the second half of its two-part history of the LOOGY (part one and part two). musta been kismet — until i’hausen returns from the dl, la russa's LOOGYs, or (all together now) "left-handed one-out guys," will loom even larger than usual in the cardinals' bullpen.

the THT study, authored by steve treder, traces the LOOGY's evolution from bullpen freak to key role paying up to $2 million per. treder also confirms what st. louisans have long known and taken for granted: under tony la russa the LOOGY isn't just a relief role, it's a cabinet position. TLR is the all-time king of LOOGY managers, having managed almost 30 individual LOOGY seasons. and since joe torre also had a wicked LOOGY habit, the cardinals rate as the all-time champion LOOGY franchise.

indeed, the cards nearly completed the holy trinity this off-season when they acquired the all-time cy young of LOOGY pitchers, mike myers. damn shame they got rid of him before the season started. in la russa’s hands (and especially now, with izzy on ice) myers might have pitched 90 times this season, faced ~110 hitters and logged, say, 25 innings pitched. . . . . alas, we’ll never know the true limits of LOOGitude.

or perhaps we’ve already established them. according to treder, in the last 14 seasons (going back to year one of the torre regime) cardinal fans have been privileged to watch 12 pitchers who merit the appellation "really hard-core LOOGYs" (RHC LOOGYs). these aren’t just any old LOOGYs; as defined by treder, they are hyperspecialists who average fewer than 0.80 innings per appearance over the course of a season. here are the 12 in their glory:

1991: bob mcclure
1992: mcclure
1995: tony fossas
1996: fossas, rick honeycutt
1997: fossas
1998: lance painter
1999: scott radinsky
2000: jason christiansen
2001: christiansen
2004: ray king, steve kline

with 10 appearances and just 6 innings so far this year, ray king is well on his way to becoming the cards’ 13th RHC LOOGY of the era — and randy flores or carmen cali may well become the 14th when all is said and done. question is: have all those RHC LOOGYs served the cardinals well over the years?

en toto, RHC LOOGYs have made 670 appearances for st louis since 1991, covering 476 innings. their record: 3.10 era, 25 wins, 21 losses, 10 saves. per 200 innings pitched, they have allowed 180 hits and 82 walks, with 146 strikeouts. opposing hitters have batted .223 against them. the figures don’t change appreciably when we break out la russa’s RHC LOOGYs separately: 3.25 era, 19-18 with 10 saves, and (per 200 innings) 178 hits, 84 walks, 148 strikeouts, .218 batting avg.

the average RHC LOOGY, then, has pitched pretty effectively for the cardinals. alas, the cards under la russa have never had an "average" RHC LOOGY. they’ve either had very excellent RHC LOOGYs, or RHC LOOGYs whose appearances are tantamount to LOOGicide — bring them in and you’ve slit your own throat. the good RHC LOOGYs, all with era’s of 2.86 or lower, bookend la russa’s reign in stl: honeycutt and fossas from 96, kline and king from 04. the bad RHC LOOGYs all have era’s of 3.83 or higher and pitched from 1997-2001. grouped together:

good: 2.48 era, .190 opp ba; per 9 inn: 7.2 h, 3.0 bb, 6.1 k
bad: 4.27 era, .258 opp ba; per 9 inn: 9.2 h, 4.9 bb, 7.4 k

here’s the punch line: in the good RHC LOOGY years, la russa’s teams have played .570 ball (59-46) in 1-run games. in the bad RHC LOOGY years, his teams have played .480 ball (116-127) in 1-run games:

that shouldn’t shock anyone. RHC LOOGYs are sort of like place-kickers in football: their short appearances on the field have a disproportionately large effect on the final score. they generally pitch against one of the opponent’s best hitters, often with the tying or winning run at bat or on base; games often literally hinge on their one-batter stint. a good LOOGY season can turn a few losses into wins; a bad LOOGY season, the reverse. and the effect is only magnified in the absence of a true closer.

the difference between .570 and .480 in one-run games is about 6 wins over the course of a year — a game a month, more than enough to change the outcome of a pennant race. i hardly need remind anyone that in ’03, last time i’hausen got hurt, the cards went 14-25 in one-run games and missed the playoffs by 3 games.

so if we want to forecast how the cards will weather i’hausen’s absence, keep an eye on the LOOGYs. they’re the canaries in the coal mine: if they start to choke, it’s only a matter of time before the whole team is breathing bad air.