cubs v cards: round 3
i’ll weigh in shortly about david pinto’s eye-opening charts revealing the holes in david eckstein’s range. for now, suffice to say that the charts do nothing to assuage my concerns.
meantime, here’s installment 3 of the chi-stl 2004 series review.
part 1 here
part 2 here
SERIES 3: JUNE 7-10, at CHICAGO
CONTEXT: the cardinals mean to make a summer of it; they’re 9-3 since their last meeting with the cubs and have moved into 2d place, a game behind the surprising reds. the cubs’ injuries are catching up to them; they’re 4-9 since the last series and have fallen to within 2 games of .500, three games behind st louis. sosa and wood remain on the shelf, and borowski has joined them there. but prior is back and apparently healed — six shutout innings in his first start — and the season is long; no way the cubs can struggle like this all summer. not once they get healthy.
SERIES SUMMARY: the cards yield 26 runs in four games and get just one game score above 32 from their starters, yet they still manage (what else) a split, with another 1-run win (their 4th of the year vs chicago) and a 12-4 thrashing of mark prior. the cards outhit the cubs in that game for the first time all season. and, despite playing the whole series without albert pujols, they swat at least two dingers in every game and out-hr chicago 9-6 for the series. and the longballs count — hrs knock in all four of stl’s runs in their series-opening 4-3 win, and 8 of their 12 in the game 3 triumph. the cubs win all the macrostatistical battles decisively — runs, rc, ba, ops, der — but continue not to capitalize on those advantages in the standings. and their frustration is starting to show — derek lee reacts to a brushback pitch in game three, and the benches empty. no punches thrown, but in retrospect it looks like a telling moment, a shift in dynamic: the cards acting like alpha dogs, the cubs feeling threatened.
PIVOTAL MOMENT: first game, bottom 5th, cards clinging to 4-3 lead. chris carpenter is fading badly — over the last eight hitters he’s yielded five hits, incl two doubles and a homer (to glendon rusch). with jose macias at 2d and one out, mike barrett laces yet another hit, but macias gets a lousy jump and has to stop at 3d; shoulda scored. but no matter, seemingly: carp’ter promptly falls behind 2-0 to alou and appears to want no part of him; ramirez waits on deck. then alou reaches outside the zone and lifts a fly to center; not deep, but prob’y deep enough for speedy macias. edmonds tho uncorks a perfect throw to the plate and nails the runner on a close play. and that turns out to be the ballgame; no baserunner from either side reaches scoring position for the rest of of the afternoon.
BY THE NUMBERS:
runs: chi 26-22
hits: chi 48-31
hrs: stl 9-6
rc: chi 31.9 - 20.8
ops: chi 931 - 831
der, chi 755 - 645
THE SEASON TO DATE: in their first 11 games vs st louis, the cubs have gotten eight game scores of 60 or above out of their rotation; the cardinals have gotten just one. cubs have now outhit the cards 112-76 — an advantage of three a game — outslugged them by 93 points, out-onbased them by 52. and they have created 20 more runs than st louis, 61-41 --- nearly two a game. they’ve done all this largely without sosa, wood, and prior. that they have squandered games seems to make the cubs more complacent, rather than less; they know they’ll have plenty more chances and that, sooner or later, the luck will even out. the cards meanwhile seem to sense the opposite — they are walking a pretty fine line, stealing wins by the barest of margins. they lead the cubs by three games but play with a healthy dose of insecurity — the knowledge that they cannot afford many mistakes. in the coming weeks they will channel this fear into a teamwide vigilance, a kind of hyperconcentration — the do-no-wrongness that lets you win games despite being outhit and outpitched. some dismiss it as luck, others exalt it as "character" or "professionalism" — but whatever it is, you can’t manufacture it; it evolves. many commentators remarked upon this quality late in the season, after it had reached full flower and the cards had played an entire summer of .750 baseball. but here, in early june, the cards are nothing special. they’re becoming special — and will make even more significant progress toward specialness in their next series vs the cubs.
JUN 7
stl 4 6 1
chi 3 9 1
w: carpenter 7-1
l: rusch 2-1
s: isringhausen 13
hr: rolen 14, sanders 10, patterson 7, rusch 1
JUN 8
stl 3 6 2
chi 7 13 1
w: clement 7-4
l: williams 3-6
hr: rolen 15, 16
JUN 9
stl 12 13 1
chi 4 10 1
w: morris 6-5
l:prior 0-1
hr: renteria 4, edmonds 11+12, patterson 8
JUN 10
stl 3 6 1
chi 12 15 0
w: zambrano 7-2
l: haren 0-1
hr: mabry 1, lankford 5, alou 15, lee 7, t. walker 7
meantime, here’s installment 3 of the chi-stl 2004 series review.
part 1 here
part 2 here
SERIES 3: JUNE 7-10, at CHICAGO
CONTEXT: the cardinals mean to make a summer of it; they’re 9-3 since their last meeting with the cubs and have moved into 2d place, a game behind the surprising reds. the cubs’ injuries are catching up to them; they’re 4-9 since the last series and have fallen to within 2 games of .500, three games behind st louis. sosa and wood remain on the shelf, and borowski has joined them there. but prior is back and apparently healed — six shutout innings in his first start — and the season is long; no way the cubs can struggle like this all summer. not once they get healthy.
SERIES SUMMARY: the cards yield 26 runs in four games and get just one game score above 32 from their starters, yet they still manage (what else) a split, with another 1-run win (their 4th of the year vs chicago) and a 12-4 thrashing of mark prior. the cards outhit the cubs in that game for the first time all season. and, despite playing the whole series without albert pujols, they swat at least two dingers in every game and out-hr chicago 9-6 for the series. and the longballs count — hrs knock in all four of stl’s runs in their series-opening 4-3 win, and 8 of their 12 in the game 3 triumph. the cubs win all the macrostatistical battles decisively — runs, rc, ba, ops, der — but continue not to capitalize on those advantages in the standings. and their frustration is starting to show — derek lee reacts to a brushback pitch in game three, and the benches empty. no punches thrown, but in retrospect it looks like a telling moment, a shift in dynamic: the cards acting like alpha dogs, the cubs feeling threatened.
PIVOTAL MOMENT: first game, bottom 5th, cards clinging to 4-3 lead. chris carpenter is fading badly — over the last eight hitters he’s yielded five hits, incl two doubles and a homer (to glendon rusch). with jose macias at 2d and one out, mike barrett laces yet another hit, but macias gets a lousy jump and has to stop at 3d; shoulda scored. but no matter, seemingly: carp’ter promptly falls behind 2-0 to alou and appears to want no part of him; ramirez waits on deck. then alou reaches outside the zone and lifts a fly to center; not deep, but prob’y deep enough for speedy macias. edmonds tho uncorks a perfect throw to the plate and nails the runner on a close play. and that turns out to be the ballgame; no baserunner from either side reaches scoring position for the rest of of the afternoon.
BY THE NUMBERS:
runs: chi 26-22
hits: chi 48-31
hrs: stl 9-6
rc: chi 31.9 - 20.8
ops: chi 931 - 831
der, chi 755 - 645
THE SEASON TO DATE: in their first 11 games vs st louis, the cubs have gotten eight game scores of 60 or above out of their rotation; the cardinals have gotten just one. cubs have now outhit the cards 112-76 — an advantage of three a game — outslugged them by 93 points, out-onbased them by 52. and they have created 20 more runs than st louis, 61-41 --- nearly two a game. they’ve done all this largely without sosa, wood, and prior. that they have squandered games seems to make the cubs more complacent, rather than less; they know they’ll have plenty more chances and that, sooner or later, the luck will even out. the cards meanwhile seem to sense the opposite — they are walking a pretty fine line, stealing wins by the barest of margins. they lead the cubs by three games but play with a healthy dose of insecurity — the knowledge that they cannot afford many mistakes. in the coming weeks they will channel this fear into a teamwide vigilance, a kind of hyperconcentration — the do-no-wrongness that lets you win games despite being outhit and outpitched. some dismiss it as luck, others exalt it as "character" or "professionalism" — but whatever it is, you can’t manufacture it; it evolves. many commentators remarked upon this quality late in the season, after it had reached full flower and the cards had played an entire summer of .750 baseball. but here, in early june, the cards are nothing special. they’re becoming special — and will make even more significant progress toward specialness in their next series vs the cubs.
JUN 7
stl 4 6 1
chi 3 9 1
w: carpenter 7-1
l: rusch 2-1
s: isringhausen 13
hr: rolen 14, sanders 10, patterson 7, rusch 1
JUN 8
stl 3 6 2
chi 7 13 1
w: clement 7-4
l: williams 3-6
hr: rolen 15, 16
JUN 9
stl 12 13 1
chi 4 10 1
w: morris 6-5
l:prior 0-1
hr: renteria 4, edmonds 11+12, patterson 8
JUN 10
stl 3 6 1
chi 12 15 0
w: zambrano 7-2
l: haren 0-1
hr: mabry 1, lankford 5, alou 15, lee 7, t. walker 7
posted by L Boros at 12:29 PM
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