Oh What the Eck

new ss signee should be serviceable. basically the same player as womack, at a diff't position. on-base avgs are acceptable, and he appears to make the routine plays in the field. but his range is not even close to edgar's.

also to the good, eckstein comes at a reasonable price --- a better value than either edgar or cabrera. but here's what i want to know: if this guy's worth $3.5 mill a year for three years, why wasn't womack worth $2.5 mill for two?

and here's another $$$ question: this year the cards have shed tino, edgar, woody, matheny, and kline from the payroll and cut morris's salary by $10 mill ---- a seeming windfall, roughly $30 million. but so far all they've done is add mid-priced contracts (mulder eckstein and 1/2 of walker's salary) and absorb a $4 mill spike in suppan's contract . . . . all of which by my estimate totals about $20 mill. whither the rest? and who's still on the market that's worth spending the money on? . . . . i think walt has missed some opportunities.

but perhaps i'm quibbling. to give walt his due, he's plugging the holes well enough to keep the team competitive, and he has avoided biting some dangerous bait this off-season, for which i give him loads of credit.

Big Unit Yet a Card?

with la-ariz-ny menage a trois collapsed, mebbe randy johnson to stl yet? cards expended their best prospects on mulder, but probably could still cobble together a package using ankiel and marquis as a foundation. i'm not even sure whether or not i favor the latter. but it would not suck to go into the season with this rotation:

johnson
mulder
carpenter
morris
suppan

No Placido to Go

polanco is going back to philly, leaving cabrera as a likely signee in the middle infield. i hope not; he will not be worth the price. my own opinion is that the cards should bring in a couple of old guys ---- larkin and alomar --- to key the infield, along with pokey reese for spot starts and late-inning defensive help. even in their declining years, both of these old pros still get on base more often than cabrera. either one can lead off, filling the cards' main remaining hole, and both will field their positions reliably if unspectacularly. but best of all they will leave the cards with some payroll flexibility when the midseason fire-sale commences.

Mulder: Best Mound Add'n Since '54

near as i can tell, mark mulder is the best starting pitcher the cards have acquired in the last 50 offseasons — on paper, anyway. see data at end of post.

his won-loss record alone — 17-8 last year, 51-24 over the last three years — makes him a rare pickup. the last time the cards added a 17-game winner to their rotation was 1972, when they acquired rick wise from the phillies . . . . for a guy named carlton. wise had gone 17-14 in 1971 pitching for the god-awful phillies and distinguished himself by throwing a no-hitter and hitting two dingers in the game for good measure. in the three seasons before he joined the cards wise went 45-41 — not bad when you consider the phillies were an aggregate 79 games under .500 during that span. and he won 32 games in his two years in st louis, making the all-star team one year. so he worked out pretty well. but carlton . . . . . well, you know.

aside from mulder and wise, the cards haven’t added a 17-game winner to their rotation since before 1950.

they have, however, made some splashy pickups, including darryl kile, andy benes, pat hentgen, todd stottlemyre, john tudor, lary sorenson, bryn smith, and chuck finley. most of these guys were very productive in cardinal red, but none came equipped with anything near mulderesque credentials.

benes came to st louis in 1996 burdened with a 76-77 career mark and an aggregate of just 32 wins (against 38 losses) over the three previous years; he went 52-37 for the cards in two tours of duty and helped the team to four division titles. hentgen brought an impressive 105-74 career mark but was already sliding, viz. just 38-33 cumulative in the three years immediately before he joined stl; he went a shaky 15-12 for the cards in 2000 and has won just 11 games in the 21st century. kile washed ashore in st louis after two seasons adrift at coors field, which years dragged his career record down to 92-95. but even if we set those two castaway seasons aside, kile brought a a mediocre 71-65 non-coors career mark to busch. as a cardinal he went 41-24.

before mulder, the cards’ best incoming sp of the last 50 yrs was ken hill, who returned to st louis from montreal as a free agent in 1995 after three outstanding seasons — the last of which, a 16-5, 3.32 performance in 1994, was cut short by the strike. entering his second stl stint, hill was 41-21 over the three prev years and 64-52 for his career, with a 3.49 era. he proceeded to stink up the joint, going 6-7 with a 5.06 era in 18 starts in 1995. the cards, having seen enough, dealt him to cleveland for david bell.

so that auspicious acquisition didn’t exactly work out. . . . . nor did another hopeful signee of that offseason, danny jackson. he'd gone 14-6 with a 3.27 era in '94; grant him the balance of his starts from that aborted season, and he'd probably have equaled mulder's 17 wins. but djax flopped even worse than ken hill: 2-12 with a 5.90 era.

no recent card offseason acquisition can come close to mulder's three-year won-loss record of 51-24. the most proximate analog is vic raschi, whom the cardinals purchased from the yankees in february 1954 for $85,000. from 1951-53 raschi was 50-22 for the world champs, with a 3.13 era. a four-time all-star and three-time 20-game winner, he brought a gaudy .706 career winning percentage to st louis — 120 wins, 70 losses. he also owned five world series victories, the most in mlb history at the time.

after going 13-6, 3.33 for the world champion yankees in 1953, raschi joined a strong card’nl rotation anchored by harvey haddix, who in 1953 led the nat'l league in shutouts (6), finished third in wins (20) and innings pitched (253), and was fourth in era (3.06) and complete games (19). the cards' returning sps also included gerry staley (18 wins, 5th in the nl), vinegar bend mizell (13 wins and 173 whiffs, third-best in the loop), and al brazle (a league-leading 18 saves). coming off a strong 3d-place finish, st louis hoped raschi would get them back to the world series for the first time since 1946.

but look out: raschi stunk, logging an 8-9 mark with a 4.73 era, and the cards stumbled to 6th place at 72-82. they dumped raschi after one start in 1955 and he caught on with kansas city, going 4-6 with a 5.68 era. so ended his career.

vic raschi's lifetime won-lost percentage of .667 (132-66) remains the 13th-best in mlb history.

stl off-season hires, 1954-2004:

BEST 1-YR RESUME (wins)
Mulder 05: 17-8, 4.43
Wise 72: 17-14, 2.88
Hill 95: 16-5, 3.32
D Jackson 95: 14-6, 3.26
Stot'myre 96: 14-7 4.55
Raschi 54: 13-6, 3.33
Suppan 04: 13-11 4.19
Sorenson 81: 12-10, 3.68
Tudor 85: 12-11, 3.27
Falcone 76: 12-11 4.17
Hermanson 01: 12-14, 4.77


BEST 3-YR RESUME (wins)
Mulder 05: 51-24, 3.72
Raschi 54: 50-22, 3.13
Sorenson 81: 45-36, 3.59
Wise 72: 45-41, 3.39
Hill 95: 41-21, 3.05
Purkey 65: 40-24 3.05
Kile 00: 40-37, 5.12
Tudor 85: 38-33, 3.68
Hentgen 00: 38-34, 4.43

Mulder's Day

mulder is a very good pitcher at a very good price. trouble is they're gonna be rebuilding this rotation every offseason for the forseeable future, and haren won't cost anything for sev'l years, which made him very useful. plus he's good --- mighta won 12 to 15 games this year, a very high yield on low investment. but mulder might win 20. so the rationale seems sound. they filled a glaring need without breaking the bank or the roster. it may or may not work out, but i think it's an intelligent move.

given mulder's relatively low cost, they ought to have enough left in the till to buy polanco and either alomar or reese for the middle infield. i remain extremely leery of cabrera, who is going to cost a lot more than he's worth and tie up somebody's payroll for sev'l years. cards can't afford another tino.

Bye Edgar

first of all, would it be so awful it the cards opened the season with a rotation of

carpenter
marquis
haren
suppan
morris

we've seen worse. remember garret stephenson? bret tomko? the immortal bud smith?

that rotation would be competitive but would probably not get the cards back the series. but jock'ty can still find an ace during the season, when the has-been teams start dumping their good players.

that leaves the leadoff spot as the primary issue to address. cabrera does not cut it ---- career obp of .316. polanco is better --- career .339, with the last two years at .352 and .345. then there's bob alomar --- career .371 obp, has held steady the last three years at .333. . . . they could do a lot worse. alomar's 37 years old, will not tie up long-term dollars, and is probably the best value out there.

they could get both alomar and polanco for renteria's dollars, and still have some money left over to add pokey reese as insurance. for that matter, i wouldn't object if they brought in alomar to leadoff and reese to play ss, and dropped a bundle on matt clement for the rotation. that would leave them in a position to assemble a package from suppan / marquis / haren / ankiel for another top-flight pitcher (randy johnson, maybe??).

there are still options out there.